A Transition from Shock to Structural Erosion

Observatory Insights | March 2026 Stocktake

The political and funding volatility of the current moment remains the primary focus of Climate Reserve’s observatory capacity. By leveraging the collective intelligence of our 30+ coalition partners, we are tracking how structural erosion is moving from federal budget lines into the very institutions and legal frameworks that define the field. Below are the themes currently surfacing across our network of scientists, data stewards, and state partners. We anticipate pulling together briefs like this on a regular basis for all of Climate Reserve’s network to benefit from.

• The Fragmentation of Foundational Institutions: We are seeing a move from personnel cuts to the potential dismantling of Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs). The restructuring of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)—an institution with a rich history of climate services we have long taken for granted—is of grave concern. As these anchor institutions are fragmented, the risk is a permanent loss of the collective technical memory that supports everything from basic science to sectoral applications.

• Judicial Gaslighting and the Removal of Evidence: The threat to climate action has entered the courtroom. The recent removal of the 90-page climate science chapter from the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, the primary guide for federal judges, is a targeted attempt to erase the ground truth from the legal system. This judicial erasure deprives judges of a peer-reviewed baseline to evaluate climate damages, making the defense of climate policy significantly more difficult.

• The Actuarial Backfire of Data Blackouts: The dismantling of federal climate data infrastructure is now triggering alarms in the private sector. Actuaries have warned that plans to reduce climate supercomputing capacity threaten the stability of the U.S. insurance market. Without access to reliable, public-facing modeling, insurers lose the ability to accurately price risk, leading to market volatility that impacts everything from mortgage availability to disaster recovery.

• The Science Communication Pivot in an Era of Mistrust: As scientific authority is increasingly pulled into “culture war” debates, major funders are shifting focus toward the psychology of trust. A new partnership between King’s College London, Wellcome, and Sense about Science launched in February 2026 to codify how research can remain effective amid rising polarization. For Climate Reserve, this could represent a critical opportunity to pilot fellowships focused on community-aligned data storytelling that emphasizes cultural closeness and shared values over mere academic credentials.

• Preparedness Gaps in the Heat-Housing-Wildfire Nexus: As we look toward the 2026 summer heat and wildfire seasons, a critical execution gap is widening. The release of the Draft 2026 California Extreme Heat Action Plan highlights the urgent need for coordination as federal support recedes. Currently, many populations, specifically outdoor workers and the unhoused, remain uncaptured in vulnerability data, leaving them disproportionately exposed. This is compounded by an unexplored zoning paradox in regions like Southern California, where the housing affordability crisis is pushing development into the wildland-urban interface (WUI) while coastal flood risks go unaddressed. Without integrated data that connects housing affordability, de-densification strategies, and climate risk, we risk pushing vulnerable populations into high-risk zones without necessary technical or social backstops.

• The Human Toll: A Generation Hitting a Wall: Beyond technical gaps, our network is reporting a profound psychological crisis among climate-aligned youth. Facing a future that feels bleak and a maturation process where they feel society has failed them, many are hitting a wall. There is an urgent, underfunded need to provide these future leaders with mentoring, psychosocial support, and meaningful professional opportunities to prevent a total exit of young talent from the field.

• The AI Resource Conflict: The rapid expansion of AI data centers is creating new, inequitable pressures on energy distribution and water rights. Companies like Google and Meta hold significant leverage with power companies, often leading to land development processes that bypass community needs. This emerging resource war threatens to sideline local climate resilience goals in favor of high-consumption technical infrastructure. One silver lining: Sightline Climate has reported that an estimated 30-50% of proposed 2026 data centers have been delayed, as local opposition grows and states impose greater regulatory protections. The Anthropocene Alliance, the nation’s largest coalition of frontline communities fighting for environmental protection, is contributing to these efforts through their SHIP-funded Policy and Advocacy Fellow.

• The Rise of Regional and Non-Federal Resilience: In the absence of federal leadership, state and regional pathways are becoming key arenas for progress. More states are authorizing climate education and professional learning resources that draw on climate data to build broader public support. Simultaneously, jurisdictions like Washington, California, and Québec are moving forward with linked carbon markets, proving that durable infrastructure can still be built through non-federal coalitions.